Paper Push: 2026-07-16
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每日论文推送：BGC-Argo、海色/海洋光学、海洋热浪与碳泵Daily Paper Push: BGC-Argo, ocean colour/ocean optics, marine heatwaves and carbon pump
本期由 GitHub Actions 自动检索生成：Nature/Science 系列优先，其次是用户指定重点期刊，再补充重点关注团队的新论文，最后纳入其他相关期刊；历史去重后保留 11 篇，不超过每日 50 篇上限。 This issue was generated automatically by GitHub Actions: Nature and Science series first, then the user-defined priority journals, then new papers from the focused team, followed by other relevant journals as topical supplements. After deduplication, 11 papers remain, below the daily limit of 50.
Download Word summary
无 mechanism sketch 图。今天的意大利语卡片： No mechanism sketch figure today. Daily Italian card:
每日一句意大利语Daily Italian
L'amor che move il sole e l'altre stelle.
Dante, Commedia, Paradiso XXXIII, 145; Italian original from Kalliope tradition
《神曲》的结尾句，把“爱”写成推动太阳和群星运行的力量；原文 amor、move、l'altre 带有古典/中古意大利语形式。
The final line of the Divine Comedy presents love as the force moving the sun and the stars, linking love with order and cosmic meaning.
趋势总结Trend Summary
本期重点关注 BGC-Argo、海色遥感/海洋光学、海洋热浪、浮游植物垂向结构和碳泵过程。筛选逻辑不再只限于重点期刊；当高影响力期刊当天新增较少时，会额外检索重点关注团队作者的新论文，并用海洋、海色/光学和碳循环关键词过滤，再从其他相关期刊补充候选论文。
This issue focuses on BGC-Argo, ocean-colour remote sensing, ocean optics, marine heatwaves, vertical phytoplankton structure and carbon-pump processes. The selection is no longer limited to priority journals; when few high-impact papers are newly available, the workflow also checks focused-team authors and filters those papers with ocean, ocean-colour/optics, and carbon-cycle keywords before adding other relevant journals as supplements.
重点期刊：按影响力和相关性排序Key journals: ordered by impact and relevance
1. Assessing Zooplankton Communities' Influence on Particulate Organic Carbon Concentration
作者Authors: Thelma Panaïotis; B. B. Cael
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122225
关键词Tags: BGC-Argo; carbon pump; vertical structure BGC-Argo; carbon pump; vertical structure
摘要：浮游动物在设定海洋中颗粒有机碳（POC）分布方面发挥着关键作用，但由于浮游动物生态系统的复杂性以及观测的稀疏性和可变性，这种作用在大尺度上仍然很难量化。我们通过将增强回归树应用于来自 Underwater Vision Profiler 5 和 Argo 浮标以及卫星衍生的 POC 产品的全球原位浮游动物图像数据库来解决这个问题。我们计算分类学、形态学和营养群落指标，然后确定三个指标——丰度、平均灰度级、分类均匀度——这三个指标解释了小 POC 垂直浓度梯度中几乎一半的空间变异（
Abstract: Zooplankton play a key role in setting the particulate organic carbon (POC) distribution in the ocean, but this role remains poorly quantified on large scales due to the complexity of zooplankton ecosystems and the sparsity and variability of observations. We address this by applying boosted regression trees to a global in situ zooplankton image database from the Underwater Vision Profiler 5 and an Argo float and satellite‐derived POC product. We compute taxonomic, morphological, and trophic community metrics, then identify three metrics—abundance, mean gray level, taxonomic evenness—that explain almost half of the spatial variability in the vertical concentration gradients of small POC (
2. Marine Phytoplankton Extremes and Compound Extreme Events Have the Potential to Be Predicted Multiple Months in Advance
作者Authors: Samuel C. Mogen; Nicole S. Lovenduski; Genevieve L. Clow
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2026gl121872
关键词Tags: phytoplankton; marine heatwaves phytoplankton; marine heatwaves
摘要：全球海洋初级生产者浮游植物是海洋食物网的基础，其变化时间较短，具有季节性繁殖的特点。人们越来越担心浮游植物丰度中短期极端事件的发生，这可能会影响更高的营养水平和经济上重要的物种。以前的工作研究了极端事件的发生和影响，但尚未尝试预测大规模极端事件。在这里，我们利用社区地球系统模型季节性至多年大型集合（CESM SMYLE）来评估浮游植物极端事件的潜在可预测性。我们发现，低浮游植物生物量极端值 (LBX) 可以提前 6 个月进行显着预测。 LBX 与上层海洋层化的增强密切相关，从而影响养分的可用性。 我们发现，复合事件（LBX 与海洋热浪和低氧极端事件）也可以提前 6 个月进行显着预测。这些结果可以为未来的模型开发提供信息，并对海洋资源管理者产生影响。
Abstract: Global marine primary producers, phytoplankton, are the base of the marine food web and vary on short timescales, characterized by seasonal blooms. There is growing concern about the occurrence of short‐term extreme events in phytoplankton abundance, which may impact higher trophic levels and economically‐important species. Previous work has investigated the occurrence and impacts of extremes, but forecasting of large‐scale extremes has not been attempted. Here, we leverage the Community Earth System Model Seasonal‐to‐Multiyear Large Ensemble (CESM SMYLE) to assess the potential predictability of phytoplankton extremes. We find that low phytoplankton biomass extremes (LBX) are significantly predictable up to 6‐month in advance. LBX are closely related to enhanced upper ocean stratification, which impacts nutrient availability. We find that compound events (LBX with marine heatwave and low oxygen extremes) are also significantly predictable up to 6 months in advance. These results could inform future model development with impacts for marine resource managers.
3. Increase in Summer–Fall Chlorophyll Blooms in the Northeastern Pacific Subtropical Gyre Over the Past Three Decades
作者Authors: James P. Ash; Angelicque E. White
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · DOI: 10.1029/2025jc023924
关键词Tags: phytoplankton; ocean colour phytoplankton; ocean colour
摘要：在北太平洋副热带环流（NPSG）海洋颜色的卫星记录中，多次观察到了跨越数百平方公里并持续数周至数月的大型叶绿素水华。这些水华通常被定义为叶绿素浓度超过某个阈值（通常~0. 15 mg m -3 ），仅发生在夏末/秋季的六月至十月期间，并且通常归因于 N 2 固定生物（固氮生物）的活动。浮游植物生物量的升高可能会导致向深海的碳输出增加，但这些异常现象的物理和化学驱动因素尚不清楚，事件也没有得到明确定义。在这里，我们的目标是描述 1998 年至 2025 年间夏威夷海洋时间序列计划监测点附近的 NPSG 中卫星衍生的叶绿素水华的强度、频率和地理位置。 我们提出了一种定义“水华”的异常方法，并发现在我们研究区域的大部分地区，6月至10月叶绿素异常随着时间的推移呈现显着的线性斜率，这表明该区域内水华的程度正在增加，特别是在夏季和秋季月份。然后，我们提出了 2018 年（该地区火山活动强烈的一年）观察到的大规模水华的案例研究时间序列，以说明浮游植物生物量的时间分辨变化，并评估与该地区生物量增加的潜在决定因素的关系。这项工作旨在更好地表征亚热带 NPSG 中的叶绿素异常。
Abstract: Large chlorophyll blooms spanning hundreds of square kilometers and persisting for weeks‐months, have been repeatedly observed in satellite records of ocean color in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG). These blooms, typically defined as chlorophyll concentrations exceeding some threshold (generally ∼0.15 mg m −3 ), occur uniquely within the late summer/fall months of June to October and are often attributed to the activity of N 2 fixing organisms (diazotrophs). Elevated phytoplankton biomass can lead to enhanced export of carbon to the deep ocean, yet the physical and chemical drivers of these anomalies are not well understood nor are the events well defined. Here we aim to characterize the magnitude, frequency, and geographic location of satellite‐derived chlorophyll blooms in the NPSG near the monitoring site of the Hawaiʻi Ocean Time‐series program between 1998 and 2025. We present an anomaly approach to defining “blooms” and find a significant linear slope in the June–October chlorophyll anomalies over time in large areas of our study region, indicating that the magnitude of blooms is increasing within this region, specifically in summer‐fall months. We then present a case‐study time‐series of a large bloom observed in 2018, a year of strong volcanic activity in the region, to illustrate the time‐resolved change in phytoplankton biomass, and provide an assessment of relationships to potential determinants of enhanced biomass in the region. This effort is intended to better characterize chlorophyll anomalies in the subtropical NPSG.
4. The North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and Phytoplankton Bloom Under Potential Future Climate Scenarios
作者Authors: Sophy Oliver; Andrew Yool; Lee de Mora; Stephen Kelly; Spencer K. Liddicoat; Alexandra Loveridge; Robin S. Smith; Ekaterina Popova
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · DOI: 10.1029/2025jc023561
关键词Tags: phytoplankton phytoplankton
摘要：北大西洋浮游植物水华（NAB）构成了整个北大西洋北部海洋生态系统服务所依赖的食物网的基础。 NAB的养分供应主要由深冬混合驱动，这种混合在副极地环流中最为明显，预计在未来几十年内将急剧下降。在这里，我们使用地球系统模型的理想化实验来研究环流上的混合层深度、表面营养物和叶绿素浓度如何对正碳排放做出反应，然后在不同的全球变暖水平（GWL）下启动零排放和负排放缓解措施。结果显示，在正排放期间，所有三个变量均有所下降，随着全球气温升高，恢复到工业化前状况的可能性就越小。 在碳排放量一旦达到 1. 5°C 的 GWL 就保持为零的情况下，国民银行开始恢复到工业化前的状况。然而，2. 5°C 及变暖后的零排放表明 NAB 持续下降。这些结果表明倾倒阈值可能位于 1. 5 和 2. 5°C GWL 之间，超过该阈值只有负排放才能实现 NAB 的恢复。即使在所研究的最低变暖情景（1. 5°C）中，NAB 的恢复也不会在零排放的 5 个世纪内发生，也不会在负排放的 1 个世纪内发生。
Abstract: The North Atlantic phytoplankton bloom (NAB) forms the base of the food web upon which marine ecosystem services throughout the northern North Atlantic rely. The NAB's nutrient supply is predominantly driven by deep winter mixing, which is most pronounced in the subpolar gyre where it has been projected to abruptly decline within the next few decades. Here we use idealized experiments with an Earth system model to investigate how mixed layer depth, surface nutrients and chlorophyll concentrations over the gyre may respond to positive carbon emissions followed by both zero and negative emissions mitigation efforts initiated at various Global Warming Levels (GWLs). Results show a decline in all three variables during positive emissions, with the warmer the GWL the less likely the prospect of recovery back to pre‐industrial conditions. In the scenario where carbon emissions are held at zero once reaching a GWL of 1.5°C, the NAB started to recover toward preindustrial conditions. However, zero emissions after 2.5°C and warmer showed a continued decline in the NAB. These results suggest a tipping threshold may lie between 1.5 and 2.5°C GWL, beyond which only negative emissions can achieve recovery of the NAB. Even in the lowest warming scenario examined, 1.5°C, recovery of the NAB did not occur within 5 centuries under zero emissions, nor did it occur within one century under negative emissions.
5. Satellite‐Based Modeling of Marine Productivity and Fisheries Habitat Conditions in the Northern Bay of Bengal
作者Authors: Tasnim Binth Abin; Mohammad Muslem Uddin; Priyanka Mazumder
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Oceanography · DOI: 10.1111/fog.70061
关键词Tags: phytoplankton; vertical structure phytoplankton; vertical structure
摘要：孟加拉湾（BoB）是一个重要的海洋生态系统，它维持着多样化的渔业，并为区域粮食安全做出了重大贡献。本研究调查了北部BoB海洋初级生产力的时空变化及其环境驱动因素——海面温度（SST）、海面盐度（SSS）、溶解氧（DO）和叶绿素-a（Chl-a）。使用相关分析、多元线性回归和 ARIMA 时间序列预测对 2024 年的多季节 Sentinel-3 OLCI 和 SLSTR 卫星数据集进行分析，以评估水文变化如何影响浮游植物动态。结果表明，冬季浮游植物生物量最高（叶绿素 a 高达 1. 50–3. 02 mg m −3 ），这是由低海温、高溶解氧和淡水排放驱动的，这些都增强了垂直混合和养分利用率。 统计分析显示，海表温度似乎是季风期间的重要驱动因素 (p = 0. 012)，而溶解氧则与生产力显着相关 (p = 0. 002)，这可能反映了有利的环境条件，而不是浮游植物产生氧气的直接生物原因。在夏季，分层可能导致生产力受到抑制，多元统计联系（R 2 = 0. 78）反映了海温、海温和溶解氧的综合影响。 ARIMA 预测表明叶绿素 a 短期增加 (1. 62–2. 28 mg m −3 )，表明持续有利的生产趋势。因此，季节性水文变化调节栖息地的适宜性，影响鲥鱼、沙丁鱼、凤尾鱼、鲭鱼和幼金枪鱼的产卵、摄食和洄游。 将卫星监测与预测模型相结合可支持气候适应型渔业管理并加强基于生态系统的治理。这些成果有助于实现多项可持续发展目标，包括 SDG 14（水下生物）、SDG 13（气候行动）、SDG 2（零饥饿）和 SDG 1（无贫困）。
Abstract: The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is a vital marine ecosystem that sustains diverse fisheries and significantly contributes to regional food security. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of marine primary productivity in the northern BoB and its environmental drivers—sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a). Multiseasonal Sentinel‐3 OLCI and SLSTR satellite datasets from 2024 were analyzed using correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and ARIMA time‐series forecasting to assess how hydrographic variability influences phytoplankton dynamics. The results show that winter exhibits the highest phytoplankton biomass (Chl‐a up to 1.50–3.02 mg m −3 ), driven by low SST, elevated DO, and freshwater discharge that enhance vertical mixing and nutrient availability. Statistical analysis revealed that SST appears to be a significant driver during the monsoon ( p = 0.012), whereas DO showed a significant association with productivity ( p = 0.002), which may reflect favorable environmental conditions rather than a direct biological causation as phytoplankton produce oxygen. During summer, stratification may have contributed to the suppression of productivity, and a multivariate statistical link ( R 2 = 0.78) reflected combined effects of SST, SSS, and DO. ARIMA forecasting indicated a short‐term increase in Chl‐a (1.62–2.28 mg m −3 ), suggesting continued favorable production trends. Seasonal hydrographic variability therefore regulates habitat suitability, influencing spawning, feeding, and migration of hilsa, sardine, anchovy, mackerel, and juvenile tuna. Integrating satellite‐based monitoring with predictive modeling supports climate‐resilient fisheries management and reinforces ecosystem‐based governance. The outcomes contribute to multiple sustainability targets, including SDG 14 (Life Below Water), SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 1 (No Poverty).
6. Climate‐Induced Changes in Habitat Suitability and Fishing Grounds for a Forage Fish and Three Demersal Species in the Inner Sea of Northern Chilean Patagonia
作者Authors: Nicolás Muñoz‐Aroca; Sergio Neira; Luis A. Cubillos; Reinaldo Rivera; Ana Arriagada; Diego Narváez
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Oceanography · DOI: 10.1111/fog.70059
关键词Tags: phytoplankton phytoplankton
摘要：气候变化正在改变巴塔哥尼亚生态系统的环境条件，对维持智利巴塔哥尼亚北部内海（41°28. 6′S–45°30′S）内手工渔业的海洋物种的分布产生潜在影响。我们使用物种分布建模方法 (Maxent) 评估了一种饲料物种（福克兰鲱、Sprattus fuegensis）和三种底层捕食者（Macruronus magellanicus、Merluccius australis 和 Genypterus blacodes）当前和未来的栖息地适宜性。将来自渔业记录和声学调查的发生数据与 2020-2050 年期间三种气候情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5）下 Bio-Oracle 的环境预测因子相结合。 结果表明，底层物种的栖息地适宜性主要与溶解氧和底部环境条件有关，而福克兰鲱主要由表面温度、盐度和浮游植物浓度驱动。目前适宜的栖息地集中在安库德湾和邻近的峡湾系统，而底层物种则占据更广泛的区域，包括内缘和外缘。未来的预测表明，底层物种的空间重新分布而不是统一损失，而福克兰西鲱则显示出向热稳定和庇护区域的迁移。预计变化幅度为 10 至 20 公里，具体取决于物种和情景。这些变化可能会改变捕食者和猎物之间的空间重叠，并影响手工船队进入渔场的可达性。 尽管预计的变化不大，但与手工渔业的经营规模相当，因此可能产生重大的社会经济影响。这项研究强调需要将气候驱动的栖息地变化纳入高度动态的峡湾生态系统的渔业管理和空间规划中。
Abstract: Climate change is altering environmental conditions in the Patagonia ecosystems, with potential consequences for the distribution of marine species that sustain artisanal fisheries within the inner sea of northern Chilean Patagonia (41°28.6′S–45°30′S). We evaluated current and future habitat suitability for one forage species (Falkland sprat, Sprattus fuegensis ) and three demersal predators ( Macruronus magellanicus , Merluccius australis , and Genypterus blacodes ) using a species distribution modeling approach (Maxent). Occurrence data derived from fisheries records and acoustic surveys were combined with environmental predictors from Bio‐Oracle under three climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5) for the period 2020–2050. Results indicate that the habitat suitability of demersal species is primarily associated with dissolved oxygen and bottom environmental conditions, whereas Falkland sprat is mainly driven by surface temperature, salinity, and phytoplankton concentration. Current suitable habitats are concentrated in the Gulf of Ancud and adjacent fjord systems, while demersal species occupy broader areas, including inner and outer margins. Future projections suggest spatial redistribution rather than uniform loss for demersal species, while the Falkland sprat shows displacement toward thermally stable and sheltered areas. The magnitude of projected shifts ranges from 10 to 20 km, depending on the species and scenario. These changes may alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey and affect the accessibility of fishing grounds for artisanal fleets. Although projected shifts are moderate, they are comparable to the operational scale of artisanal fisheries and may therefore have significant socioeconomic implications. This study highlights the need to incorporate climate‐driven habitat changes into fisheries management and spatial planning in highly dynamic fjord ecosystems.
7. Marine Heatwaves and NAO-Related Ocean–Atmosphere Variability in the North Atlantic
作者Authors: Beatriz Lopes; Ana Oliveira; Fabíola Silva; João Paixão; Célia Gouveia
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Remote Sensing · DOI: 10.3390/rs18142363
关键词Tags: marine heatwaves; vertical structure marine heatwaves; vertical structure
摘要：温室气体浓度的增加给地球系统带来了巨大的压力，特别是海洋，它在碳和热量的吸收以及整体气候调节方面发挥着至关重要的作用。因此，海洋正在加速变暖，导致极端海水温度事件（称为海洋热浪（MHW））的发生率增加。根据最常见的定义，当当地气温至少连续五天超过气候学第 90 个百分位数阈值时，就会确定为 MHW 事件。在这项研究中，通过计算整个可用历史时期（1982-2022）的海表温度平均值和第 90 个百分位数，而不是使用固定的 30 年基线，对定义进行了修改。 虽然 MHW 的发展可能是多个驱动因素（包括地下热量重新出现、异常温暖的水团、海洋热平流、垂直混合减少以及与地表增热相关的混合层分层）的函数，但本研究重点关注 1982 年至 2022 年北大西洋盆地与 MHW 发生和特征相关的天气尺度大气条件，目的是确定 MHW 的时空趋势，检查与其发生相关的大气条件并探索它们与普遍的气候变化模式的关系。 结果显示，MHW 频率、持续时间和强度呈积极趋势，尽管其特征是显着的纬向和经向变化，根据盛行的北大西洋涛动 (NAO) 模式，频率和最大强度的复合模式之间存在显着差异。年度NAO似乎调节了MHW的空间分布，其正相位有利于中纬度地区的MHW，而负相位影响副极地和热带地区。此外，就具体事件而言，高压系统的平稳性（压力梯度较弱、风速降低和太阳辐射增加）似乎与所分析事件的发生有关，而大气不稳定似乎表明其下降，可能与风引起的海洋混合增强有关。
Abstract: Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are placing severe pressure on the Earth system, particularly on the ocean, which plays a vital role in carbon and heat uptake, and overall climate regulation. Consequently, the ocean is experiencing an accelerated warming, leading to an increase in the occurrence of extreme seawater temperature events, called Marine Heatwaves (MHWs). According to the most common definition, an MHW event is identified when local temperatures exceed the 90th percentile threshold of the climatology for at least five consecutive days. In this study, the definition was modified by calculating both the mean and the 90th percentile of SST over the entire available historical period (1982–2022), rather than using a fixed 30-year baseline. While MHWs can develop as a function of multiple drivers (including subsurface heat re-emergence, anomalously warm water masses, ocean heat advection, reduced vertical mixing, and mixed-layer stratification associated with surface heat gain), this study focuses on synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with MHW occurrence and characteristics in the North Atlantic basin, from 1982 to 2022, with the objectives of identifying spatial-temporal trends of MHWs, examining the atmospheric conditions associated with their occurrence and exploring their relationship with prevalent climate variability modes. The results show positive trends in MHW frequency, duration, and intensity, albeit characterised by significant zonal and meridional variability, with noticeable differences between composite patterns of frequency and maximum intensity, according to the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode. The annual NAO appears to modulate the spatial distribution of MHWs, with its positive phase favouring MHWs in mid-latitude regions, while the negative phase impacts subpolar and tropical regions. Furthermore, concerning case-specific events, the stationarity of high-pressure systems, with weak pressure gradients, reduced wind speeds and increased solar radiation appears to be associated with the occurrence of the analysed events, while atmospheric instability appears to signal their decline, likely linked to enhanced wind-induced ocean mixing.
重点关注团队Focused team
8. Uncertainty-Quantified Dynamic Graph Ordinary Differential Equation Network for Marine Chlorophyll-a Concentration Forecasting
作者Authors: Haolai Wang; Xiaoyu He; Suixiang Shi; Xiulin Geng
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering · DOI: 10.3390/jmse14141301
关键词Tags: phytoplankton phytoplankton
摘要：海洋叶绿素-a（Chl-a）浓度是浮游植物生物量的关键指标，也是富营养化评估、生态监测和有害藻华预警的重要指标。因此，叶绿素a浓度的准确预测对于海洋环境管理具有重要的科学和实用价值。然而，现有的深层模型仍然难以将相对稳定的大规模空间结构与局部时变相互作用耦合起来，并且许多模型不能提供可靠的不确定性估计，这限制了它们在有害藻华预警和高叶绿素事件评估中的应用。为了解决这些问题，本研究提出了一种不确定性量化动态图常微分方程网络，称为 UQDGODE，用于海洋叶绿素 a 浓度预测。 该模型结合了用于稳定空间扩散建模的多元扩散图卷积分支和用于持续演化局部相互作用的动态图常微分方程分支。门控机制融合了两个分支，多元概率预测模块输出预测平均值和协方差信息以进行不确定性量化。在渤海和南海数据集上的实验表明，UQDGODE在点预测精度和概率预测质量方面都有更好的表现，并为海洋生态预警提供了更丰富的预测分布和更自适应的预测区间。
Abstract: Marine chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is a key proxy for phytoplankton biomass and an important indicator for eutrophication assessment, ecological monitoring, and harmful algal bloom early warning. Accurate forecasting of Chl-a concentration therefore has substantial scientific and practical value for marine environmental management. Nevertheless, existing deep models still have difficulty coupling relatively stable large-scale spatial structure with locally time-varying interactions, and many of them do not provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which limits their use in harmful algal bloom early warning and high-chlorophyll event assessment. To address these issues, this study proposes an uncertainty-quantified dynamic graph ordinary differential equation network, termed UQDGODE, for marine Chl-a concentration forecasting. The model combines a multivariate diffusion graph convolutional branch for stable spatial diffusion modeling with a dynamic graph ordinary differential equation branch for continuously evolving local interactions. A gating mechanism fuses the two branches, and a multivariate probabilistic prediction module outputs predictive means and covariance information for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on the Bohai Sea and South China Sea datasets show that the UQDGODE performs better in both point forecasting accuracy and probabilistic forecasting quality and produces more informative predictive distributions and more adaptive prediction intervals for marine ecological alerting.
9. Hydraulic Fracturing Effectiveness Evaluation in Tight Sandstone-Type Uranium Deposits Under a High Horizontal Stress–Low Vertical Stress Regime
作者Authors: Shusen Hao; Hongxing Li; Tingting Xie; Yuan Yuan; Ke He; Qinci Li; Daiwen Hou; Zhaokun Li; et al.
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Processes · DOI: 10.3390/pr14142305
关键词Tags: vertical structure vertical structure
摘要：水力压裂是提高致密砂岩铀矿床渗透率的关键增产技术。然而，现有的水力裂缝网络评价方法主要适用于垂直主应力超过水平主应力的应力区，不适用于评价高水平应力、低垂直应力条件下形成的低角度或近水平水力裂缝。为了解决这一局限性，本研究开发了一种半定量方法，用于评估以高水平应力和低垂直应力为特征的应力状态下水力压裂的有效性。该方法引入了斯通利波衰减指数，并将其与斯通利波 V 形顶点响应相结合，以识别水力压裂层段。 通过进一步整合传统测井数据以减少钻孔扩大、岩性边界和天然裂缝的干扰，该方法支持水力诱发裂缝的识别并提供其发育的半定量评估。该方法应用于中国阿拉善巴音戈壁盆地原地浸铀开采水力压裂先导试验，支持增产井和监测井水力致裂缝和裂缝区间的识别。现场应用结果支持了该方法的工程适用性，并对其有效性进行了初步验证。 结果表明，该方法为评估致密砂岩铀矿床的水力压裂性能和研究裂缝扩展提供了一种有效的基于测井的方法。
Abstract: Hydraulic fracturing is a key stimulation technique for enhancing the permeability of tight sandstone-hosted uranium deposits. However, existing hydraulic fracture network evaluation methods are primarily applicable to stress regimes in which the vertical principal stress exceeds the horizontal principal stress, making them unsuitable for evaluating low-angle or subhorizontal hydraulic fractures formed under high-horizontal-stress and low-vertical-stress conditions. To address this limitation, this study develops a semi-quantitative method for evaluating hydraulic fracturing effectiveness under stress regimes characterized by high horizontal stress and low vertical stress. The proposed method introduces a Stoneley-wave attenuation index and combines it with Stoneley-wave chevron-apex responses to identify hydraulically fractured intervals. By further integrating conventional well-log data to reduce interference from borehole enlargement, lithological boundaries, and natural fractures, the method supports the identification of hydraulically induced fractures and provides a semi-quantitative assessment of their development. The method was applied to a hydraulic fracturing pilot test for in situ leaching uranium mining in the Bayingobi Basin, Alxa, China, where it supported the identification of hydraulically induced fractures and fractured intervals in both stimulation and monitoring wells. Field application results support the engineering applicability of the proposed method and provide preliminary validation of its effectiveness. The results indicate that this method provides an effective logging-based approach for evaluating hydraulic fracturing performance and investigating fracture propagation in tight sandstone-hosted uranium deposits.
其他相关期刊：按主题相关性补充Other relevant journals: topical supplements
10. Hybrid U-Net and ConvLSTM-based spatial forecasting of marine heatwave intensity and occurrence probability
作者Authors: Daniar Ihza Carundyatama; Yosafat Donni Haryanto; Avrionesti; Purwanti Lelly Sabrina
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
JUTI: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi · DOI: 10.12962/j24068535.v24i2.a1552
关键词Tags: marine heatwaves marine heatwaves
摘要：海洋热浪 (MHW) 是一种极端海面温度事件，会对海洋生态系统、渔业和珊瑚礁环境产生重大影响，凸显了小巽他群岛等脆弱地区需要准确的预报系统。本研究旨在通过集成巴厘岛、西努沙登加拉和东努沙登加拉地区的 U-Net 和 ConvLSTM 模型，开发基于混合深度学习的 MHW 预测系统。使用的数据集包括 NOAA OISST V2。 1 1985-2024 年期间的每日海面温度数据，以及 Niño 3. 4 和偶极模指数 (DMI) 大气指数。 U-Net模型用于预测海表温度异常（SSTA）强度，而ConvLSTM用于估计MHW发生概率。 结果表明，U-Net强度模型对1天、3天、5天和7天提前期的最佳预测精度分别达到0. 8896、0. 8597、0. 8462和0. 8674，最佳阈值分别为0. 92 °C、0. 56 °C、0. 51 °C和0. 31 °C。 ConvLSTM 概率模型产生的最大 FAR 值为 0. 9101、0. 8962、0. 8941 和 0. 8854，最佳概率阈值为 0. 25、0. 1、0. 1 和 0. 1。RMSE 评估从第 1 天的 0. 27 °C 逐渐增加到第 7 天预测的 0. 94 °C。总体而言，混合深度学习框架在表示 MHW 事件的强度和概率（长达 7 天的预测范围）方面表现出了稳健且稳定的性能。
Abstract: Marine Heatwaves (MHW) are extreme sea surface temperature events that significantly affect marine ecosystems, fisheries, and coral reef environments, highlighting the need for accurate forecasting systems in vulnerable regions such as the Lesser Sunda Islands. This study aims to develop a hybrid deep learning-based MHW prediction system by integrating U-Net and ConvLSTM models over the regions of Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara. The datasets used consist of NOAA OISST V2.1 daily sea surface temperature data for the period 1985–2024, along with Niño 3.4 and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) atmospheric indices. The U-Net model was applied to predict Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) intensity, while ConvLSTM was used to estimate the probability of MHW occurrence. The results demonstrate that the best forecasting accuracies of the U-Net intensity model for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day lead times reached 0.8896, 0.8597, 0.8462, and 0.8674, respectively, with optimal thresholds of 0.92 °C, 0.56 °C, 0.51 °C, and 0.31 °C. The ConvLSTM probability model produced maximum FAR values of 0.9101, 0.8962, 0.8941, and 0.8854 with optimal probability thresholds of 0.25, 0.1, 0.1, and 0.1. RMSE evaluation increased gradually from 0.27 °C on day-1 to 0.94 °C on day-7 forecasts. Overall, the hybrid deep learning framework demonstrated robust and stable performance in representing both the intensity and probability of MHW events up to a seven-day forecasting horizon.
11. Satellite Remote Sensing Reveals Climate‐Driven Breeding Failure in Greater Flamingos at a Mediterranean Hypersaline Lake
作者Authors: Mustafa Cemal Darilmaz
发表月份Publication month: 2026-07 2026-07
Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · DOI: 10.1002/aqc.70424
关键词Tags: ocean colour ocean colour
摘要：全球范围内的高盐湖正在萎缩，但在数十年的时间尺度上，干燥如何导致依赖水鸟的繁殖失败仍然很难量化。图兹古鲁（土耳其图兹湖）支持着东地中海最大的大火烈鸟 (Phoenicopterusroseus) 繁殖群，贡献了该地区雏鸡产量的 67%，但由于降水量减少、蒸发需求增加和流域规模的取水，面临着繁殖季节水流失加速的问题。本研究结合了 Landsat-MODIS 图像、ERA5-陆地气候数据、模型选择、水平衡模型和三种排放情景下的 CMIP6 预测，分析了 29 年的卫星记录（1997-2025）。 4 月至 6 月的失水率与羽翼雏鸡数量的相关性最强（Spearman rho = -0. 634，p = 0. 003），尽管留一交叉验证表明个别年份的点预测精度有限（LOOCV R 2 = 0. 061）。 6 月的临界水阈值为 175 km 2，区分成功季节和失败季节（Mann–Whitney p = 0. 007）。可用水量正在下降（Mann-Kendall p = 0. 036），并且在最高排放情景下，四个气候模型中的三个表明，到 2081 年至 2100 年，6 月水域面积可能会低于该阈值，尽管本世纪末的温度超出了观测训练范围。尽管积极补充水分，但 2025 年季节的羽翼雏鸟数量为零，这表明当丰年虫食物网在高盐度下崩溃时，仅靠水可能是不够的。 假设了一个双阈值框架，其中可能共同需要足够的水域和功能性营养基础，等待营养成分的直接原位验证。该框架适用于世界各地干燥的高盐湿地，包括大盐湖、乌尔米亚湖和咸海盆地，这些湿地的类似轨迹威胁着依赖的水鸟。
Abstract: Hypersaline lakes are shrinking worldwide, yet how desiccation drives breeding failure in dependent waterbirds remains poorly quantified over multi‐decadal timescales. Tuz Gölü (Lake Tuz, Türkiye) supports the largest Greater Flamingo ( Phoenicopterus roseus ) breeding colony in the Eastern Mediterranean, contributing up to 67% of regional chick production, but faces accelerating breeding‐season water loss driven by declining precipitation, rising evaporative demand and basin‐scale water extraction. This study analysed a 29‐year satellite record (1997–2025) combining Landsat–MODIS imagery, ERA5‐Land climate data, model selection, a water‐balance model and CMIP6 projections under three emission scenarios. April‐to‐June water loss rate was the strongest correlate of fledged chick counts (Spearman rho = −0.634, p = 0.003), although leave‐one‐out cross‐validation indicated limited point‐prediction accuracy for individual years (LOOCV R 2 = 0.061). A critical June water threshold of 175 km 2 separated successful from failed seasons (Mann–Whitney p = 0.007). Water availability is declining (Mann–Kendall p = 0.036), and under the highest‐emission scenario, three of four climate models indicate that June water area may fall below this threshold by 2081–2100, though end‐century temperatures lie outside the observational training range. The 2025 season produced zero fledged chicks despite active water supplementation, suggesting that water presence alone may be insufficient when the Artemia ‐based food web collapses under hypersalinity. A dual‐threshold framework is hypothesised, in which both adequate water area and a functional trophic base may be jointly required, pending direct in situ verification of the trophic component. The framework applies to drying hypersaline wetlands worldwide, including the Great Salt Lake, Lake Urmia and the Aral Sea basin, where analogous trajectories threaten dependent waterbirds.
